In August 2024, Ukraine launched a dangerous and an unpredictable military operation. It was a historic moment in the war against Russia. The attack on the border of the Kursk region is historically important, as it was the first time since World War II that another country occupied Russian territory. Some experts have called this campaign the “Second Battle of Kursk.” It describes the strategic changes brought about by the war as well as the progress of the Ukrainian army. Ukraine’s operation near Kursk captured the attention of people around the world with its mechanized forces and modern tactics.
This offensive mostly aims to damage supply lines and seize control of vital sites, including the Kursk nuclear plant, thereby undermining the infrastructure and Russian military positions. The deployment of highly mobile, motorized brigades to break through Russia’s defenses and strike behind enemy lines caused considerable attention everywhere. Operationally, the attack was intended to reduce Russian forces by separating them from critical fronts in the Donbas and Kharkiv regions, thus relieving the pressure felt by the Ukrainian forces stationed in those regions. Ukraine has effectively forced Russia to redeploy its forces, despite the danger of wearing out its resources, to turn the dynamics in other conflict zones in their favor.
The Ukrainian army moved 14 kilometers into Russia and captured important towns like Sudzha. Russia was shocked by Ukraine’s surprise attack, which made Moscow support its military forces by redeploying their reserves from strategic sites such as Kaliningrad and Belgorod. At the beginning of the Ukraine’s operation, the attack was deep behind enemy lines and withdrew quickly to confuse Russian troops and allow the Ukrainian military to maintain momentum. Also, Russian troops were forced to relocate their soldiers from important areas in Ukraine, such as Zaporizhia and Kherson, to counter an unforeseen attack from Ukraine. In addition, Ukraine’s precise strikes, including HIMARS operations against Russian convoys, have caused significant damage to Russian troops.
However, particularly in relation to its military resources, Ukraine’s attack on Kursk poses significant challenges. As Ukrainian troops advanced into Russian territory, the weak spot was noticed by Russian troops in key places such as Pokrovsk and the Donbas. This has exposed towns like Pokrovsk, giving Russian troops a chance to take advantage of this opportunity to advance further. Slowly but surely Russia advances to Pokrovsk, which is a strategic point in the east of Ukraine. Political and military risks can be really dangerous from excessive penetration of Russian territory. Ukraine’s entire military strategy will be disrupted if it loses important facilities elsewhere in the Donbas region and precisely in Pokrovsk.
The operation in Kursk could change Ukraine’s position in subsequent peace talks. This operation demonstrated Ukraine’s ability to threaten Russia on its territory, changing the narrative and possibly increasing its influence during negotiations. Some in the West were concerned that the “red lines” were crossed, when attacking Russian territory, while others saw Russia’s restrained response as proof that the lines might be more flexible than initially thought. The attack sparked disagreement over the arming of Ukraine as it called into question the general concern over the risks of escalation. Both sides are likely to have revised their tactics, for the Kursk operation could also impact the war as a whole. While Ukraine may hope for more opportunities for an attack, given the success of its creative strategies and the operational vulnerabilities identified in Russian defenses, Russia may prioritize strengthening its border. But on the other hand, the operation gives Russia the opportunity to advance into the east of Ukraine while Ukraine’s resources are targeted in Kursk.
Having said all above, Ukraine’s Kursk attack was a bold and until now unheard-of move that revealed weaknesses and spread its resources thin to produce notable successes. For Russia, the operation spurred military regroupment. The offensive might change Ukraine’s position in military tactics and upcoming peace talks. As military historian Lawrence Freedman said: “Russia’s supposed military might have proved to be more fragile than formidable in this war, exposing cracks in its power.”
Featured image by Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters.
