Sunday, October 20, 2024, is a date that determined Moldova’s European future. On this day, a nationwide constitutional referendum was held in parallel with the presidential elections, marking the most significant votes since the country’s independence in 1991. The referendum’s main objective was to amend the country’s Constitution to include the citizens’ wish for European Union membership, in the hopes of preventing future governments from shifting the country away from its evolving pro-European trajectory.
The results of the referendum were expected to comfortably swing in the pro-EU direction, however, quite the opposite occurred. Many were shocked when just in the preliminary numbers on Sunday evening October 20th, 52% of ballots within a total of 92% were cast “No” as pro-EU presidential candidate Maia Sandu claimed that there was “clear evidence” that criminal groups working together with foreign forces hostile to Moldova’s interests sought to buy off 300,000 votes.
By Monday, results had swayed in the pro-EU direction but not by a comfortable margin. The final tally stood at 50.46% “Yes” and 49.54% “No”, just very narrowly allowing the referendum to pass. Even though the results were favorable, many were shocked by the narrow margin with the BBC itself stumbling upon evidence of vote buying at a polling station for residents of the breakaway region of Transnistria. So what caused this ridiculously close voting outcome and what does this mean for the future of Moldova? This article will explore Moldova’s tumultuous journey between pro-European and pro-Russian influences, examining both the forces at play in this referendum and what these conflicting results may mean for the country’s future.
Moldova’s History and Its Struggle for EU Membership
The historic influences over Moldova serve to explain the present conflict over its possible membership in the EU. Throughout history, there have been periods (such as in the early 1900s) where Moldova was part of its neighboring country Romania, however, Moscow’s influence never fully ceased. During the Second World War, Moldova experienced a sort of back and forth between Romania and the USSR until it was eventually fully ceded to the USSR in 1941 in order to cease hostilities of the war. Moldova remained an integrated part of the USSR until its collapse in 1991.
Despite influences that plagued Moldova’s history, since the 2000s, the country has made consistent efforts to build its relations and establish its own presence within the international community. Formal relations with the EU were established through the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) in 1999 and in 2004 Moldova was included in the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) (policy aiming to bring the EU and its Eastern neighbors closer). When Romania became an EU Member in 2007, it started to advocate for Moldova’s membership at the EU Council. As the years have passed, trade volumes with the EU have far exceeded those with Russia and the number of Moldovans working in Russia has significantly declined. The biggest factor that solidified Moldova’s position as a contender for EU membership was the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 which had a major impact on regional security concerns as well as Moldova’s foreign policy. Moldova’s proximity to Ukraine has made the nation feel particularly vulnerable to Russian aggression, pushing it to formalize its membership process. In 2022 the Republic of Moldova officially submitted its application for EU membership and just this year in July, accession negotiations began.
Nevertheless, in order for a State to fully become a Member, there are some requirements that need to be fulfilled which Moldova still struggles with. First, the State needs to comply with all EU standards and rules. Second, it needs to have consent from EU institutions and EU Member States that it can join. Third and most importantly, it needs to have the consent of its citizens as expressed through approval in their national parliaments or by referendum.
Even though the recent referendum has passed by a narrow majority, the third criterion is the one that poses the most problems in relation to the region of Transnistria. This region is a narrow strip of land with a predominantly Russian-speaking population that has declared independence from Moldova after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Transnistria, alongside the autonomous region of Gagauzia, has been an important vessel for spreading Russian propaganda and creating instability that would ensure Moscow maintained a level of control over Moldova’s functioning. Therefore, as Moldova continues on her path to EU Membership, there are concerns as to how Moscow will exploit these regions whether politically or economically in order to maintain a level of control.
The Present Stance on Moldova’s Membership
In order to continue fulfilling the requirements for membership, Brussels has vouched to support Moldova’s territorial integrity through the process of settling the status of Transnistria. Chisinau has indicated that it wishes to reestablish control over Transnistria in order to prevent the issue from becoming an obstacle to the EU, however, opinions still remain divided with Transnistria advocating for independence even after Moldova’s application. Regardless, Brussels pointed out that Moldova’s accession is not entirely dependent on the reintegration of the separatist republic as there have been other Member States in similar situations that still joined (Cyprus joining the EU in 2004 despite having part of its territory remain under the rule of the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus).
Polling Section in Oliscani, Moldova. Featured Image courtesy of Jules Bigot.
What the Future Holds for Moldova
Since no candidate managed to secure a majority (Maia Sandu only collected 42% of the votes while Russian-backed candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo scored 26%, way above his predicted 9-11%) in the Presidential elections which happened last month, a second round will take place on November 3rd that will determine the country’s next steps in the EU Membership process. Depending on the stance of the new President, Moldova will ping pong between its pro-EU and pro-Russia stance. Additionally, this second round is predicted to be even more difficult as former eliminated candidates populist Renato Usatii and former Gaugazia governor Irina Vlah are predicted to unite against Sandu behind Stoianoglo.
Regardless of what would have been the outcome of the referendum, accession talks would have continued as the referendum is not legally binding. The results however were supposed to make the process indisputable, but due to the close nature of the outcome, Moldova’s future stands on shaky ground. Nevertheless, this outcome indicates a positive signal for Moldova’s future in the EU. Much remains to be seen on how Moldova will continue to progress as this is largely dependent on the upcoming Presidential elections and the Parliamentary elections happening next year. If there is anything to be learned from this referendum, it is that the EU must better account for threats and obstacles posed by Russia in Moldova to ensure that the public can express their views without being susceptible to threats or bribery.
