On the 21st of November in 2013, the fugitive president—Viktor Yanukovych—refused to sign the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union. Protests began the next day in downtown Kyiv. Those were small, not large, groups of progressive students who protested peacefully. They lived in tents for several days, and it looked as if the protest would stop within a few days.
That was until the night of the 29th of November, when the pro-Russian ex-president decided to use the “strategic move” to stop this protest by using police force and violently beating 400 students. After these events, the protest of 400 students grew to 500,000 protesters in just the next few days! The video showing the beating of the students spread like wildfire across Ukraine. People were shocked because such brutal dispersals of small protests had never happened before. Later that same winter, the protests escalated into a revolution known as the Euromaidan or the Revolution of Dignity. More than 100 people died, mostly from shootings by policemen of the “Berkut” special forces, against whom protesters were using shields and construction helmets for defense and cobblestones as weapons.
Many defenders of the Russian perspective cite Mearsheimer and Cohen’s works, which show different perspectives of Euromaidan. They claim that the revolution was a “coup” and a “Western overthrow” of the legitimate presidency of Yanukovich. However, such analyses are oversimplified:
- They don’t look into Ukrainian agency. Indeed, 58% of Ukrainians supported association with the EU.
- There’s not even the smallest evidence of the West orchestrating or organizing the protests or the subsequent “overthrow.” Rhetorics and political support for the protesters are not indicative of an organization behind the coup.
Of course, the US and Europe had interests, as any other state would. However, the direct involvement was not present. Otherwise, the Russian propaganda machine would have already cited direct evidence to strengthen their claims; instead, they only claim the West’s involvement without any strong or real arguments. On the other hand, numerous pieces of evidence clearly demonstrate Russia’s direct involvement in suppressing the protests. In December 2013, a delegation of 20 officers from the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) was in Kyiv. What did they forget in Ukraine? Together with the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), they prepared materials to discredit the Euromaidan participants and opposition forces. Classified reports from the then-pro-Russian Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) documented coordination of actions between Russian and Ukrainian special services, most of which were pro-Russian during the protests. Investigations revealed that Russian advisers participated in planning operations against the protesters. For example, operations codenamed “Wave” and “Boomerang” involved the use of snipers to disperse the crowd and seize the protesters’ headquarters in the House of Trade Unions. According to the State Bureau of Investigation of Ukraine, the former first deputy head of the Russian Main Intelligence Directorate was stationed at the Hotel “Kyiv” and directed the crackdown while receiving payment from the Security Service of Ukraine. This is all direct evidence of direct Russian intervention. All defenders of pro-Russian positions consistently overlook this evidence, instead blaming the US and Europe for the revolution and accusing them of carrying out a “government coup.”
- They don’t interpret Yanukovich’s actions as a catalyst: if he hadn’t violently dispersed students, the revolution could not have even happened.
- Their narratives undermine Ukrainians’ identity. Is Ukraine just some territory circled on a map, with no right to self-governance because it borders with Russia?
The current events in Georgia are somewhat similar to the beginning of Euromaidan. On October 28, 2024, during parliamentary elections, the pro-Russian Kobakhidze government got a majority. According to the OSCE report, statistical anomalies, and prosecutors in Georgia, the elections were not fair, causing the first “wave” of protests. On November 30, 2024, the Kobakhidze government announced the suspension of negotiations to join the European Union until 2028. This sparked a widespread series of huge protests in Tbilisi and Kutaisi. Again, a pro-Russian entity—in this case, the Georgian Parliament—tries to go against the will of the majority in order to align with Russian interests instead of Western ones. According to IRI, 73% of polled Georgians support EU membership.
Additionally, we can see the same style of “resolving” protests as in Ukraine: the use of police officers who brutally beat protesters. Also, it is worth noting the use of athletes, commonly known as “titushki.” The term comes from the surname of athlete Vadym Titushko, who attacked journalists during the opposition rally “Get Up, Ukraine!” on May 18, 2013. This incident brought attention to the practice of using young men with athletic builds for provocations and violence against protesters. During Euromaidan (November 2013 – February 2014), the use of “titushki” became systematic. Now, the same tactic is widely used in Georgia. These athletes cannot bear any responsibility and simply do the dirty work for the police.
The Kobakhidze government will probably continue the use of policemen to suppress the protests. The Revolution of Dignity was sort of a lesson to Putin on how not to lose control over another state. For example, when Lukashenko imprisoned all the opposition ahead of the 2020 elections in Belarus, huge protests emerged in Minsk. This time, the suppression of protests was more severe than in Ukraine in 2014. Russia used the military to stop the demonstrations in Belarus within a few weeks, maintaining Belarus under its control.
The use of the Russian military is unlikely to break the demonstrations in Georgia, because the country is already too close to the EU and the West. There might, however, be provocations from Abkhazia to disturb the country or involvement of secret Russian agents. But the most likely scenario is that the Kobakhidze government will try to suppress the protests completely until the very end, which might lead to a revolution in Georgia.
Featured image by REUTERS/Irakli Gedenidze.
