North Korean troops on parade in Pyongyang in October 2023 during the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (Kim Won-jin/AFP via Getty Images)
South Korea’s intelligence agency, NIS, claims that North Korea has begun deploying troops to assist Russia in the conflict in Ukraine, prompting Seoul to issue a warning about a “serious security threat.”
In Brussels, Ukrainian President Zelensky told reporters: “We know about 10,000 [North Korean] soldiers are preparing to [start] fighting against us. This is really an urgent thing,” cautioning that the participation of a third nation could escalate the conflict into a “global war.”
This coincides with reports from a BBC source in Russia’s Far East, who claims that “a number of North Koreans have arrived” and are now stationed at a military base near Ussuriysk. Seoul’s intelligence agency has also shared aerial images of Ussuriysk and Khabarovsk with evidence that hundreds of North Korean troops have assembled there; another photo of North Korea’s Chongjin port, in which a Russian vessel was reportedly seen transporting North Korean soldiers, further confirms this. The NIS indicated that the North Korean troops “are anticipated to be deployed to the front lines” once their adaptation training is finished.
However, last week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed claims that North Korean personnel had been and would be dispatched to assist Russia, rendering them “another hoax.”
If accusations were to be true, what does it imply for North Korea?
Some military experts are skeptical and believe that it would be a delicate matter to integrate North Korean troops into Russian military units due to their lack of combat operations. Language barriers between troops pose an additional challenge; despite the English Language’s status as a lingua franca, the varying levels of English proficiency among North Korean troops may pose an impediment to effective communication.
According to the NIS, the soldiers were being provided with Russian military uniforms and Russian-manufactured weapons, likely a strategy to help them pose as Russian troops and thereby conceal their involvement in the war. However, any display of North Korean military insignia or the identification of North Korean uniforms when on frontline territory would be an infallible signal to the West and the international community that Pyongyang is publicly committed to the war against Ukraine and its alliance with Russia.
Furthermore, from a strategic viewpoint, deploying troops would be optically advantageous for the North Korean regime, as this could enable it to present itself as a defender of its allies and strengthen its resistance against U.S. and NATO. This would also further incite nationalist sentiment among North Koreans and cultivate a sense of pride and solidarity with the regime, particularly if there are limited North Korean casualties by the end of the conflict.
Similarly, deploying troops to support Russia could signal that North Korea is not prepared for war with South Korea in the near future, despite recent tensions, by prioritizing the acquisition of combat experience. There are three levels of troop combat experience in which North Korea could be investing:
- Frontline Engagement: North Korean troops may be fighting alongside Russian forces on the front lines in Ukraine or participating in restricted operations within Russia.
- Support Roles: North Korea could be dispatching engineers and technical specialists to observe, maintain, and operate weapons supplied by North Korea, while avoiding direct combat.
- Training and Observation: Another possibility is that North Korea is focusing on training and observation roles, allowing its troops to gain insights into battlefield tactics and operational strategies without engaging directly in combat.
Additionally, the defense pact between Russia and North Korea stipulates mutual assistance in the event of an armed invasion, suggesting that it would be more logical for North Korea to limit its operations to within Russia. Since North Korea has recognized the two Russia-backed breakaway regions in the Donbass as independent states, it may refrain from sending troops to those areas, as the defense pact specifically covers Russia. If North Korea elects to deploy troops to protect the two breakaway regions, it would indicate that the scope of the pact is wider than previously anticipated.
In essence, North Korea has chosen to make the politically and militarily strategic choice of allocating resources engaged in Ukraine rather than against South Korea; if Russia wins in Ukraine, this outcome would strengthen its alliance with Russia, as Pyongyang might see Moscow’s success as validation of its own military strategies and potentially political ideologies. Heightened Russian power could provide North Korea with greater diplomatic leverage, as it would likely seek even closer ties with a victorious Russia for further economic and military support. Notably, a Russian victory might encourage North Korea to adopt more aggressive postures toward South Korea and other neighboring countries, believing that such actions would be less likely to provoke a strong international response and that it would always be backed by Russia.
