Recently, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) coalition urged Myanmar’s military government to prioritize peace and humanitarian access instead of planning an election amidst an ongoing civil conflict.
The conflict has worsened since its outbreak in February 2021, when the country’s military, led by General Min Aung Hlaing, staged a coup against the democratically elected government of Nobel laureate and State Counsellor, Aung San Suu Kyi. The coup triggered massive pro-democracy protests that, despite crackdowns, have catalyzed a melting pot of armed rebellions that have taken over parts of the country.
Battles between the junta, which refers to itself as the State Administration Council (SAC), and resistance forces have resulted in thousands of deaths, with over 1.5 million being internally displaced and more than 200 thousand people fleeing to neighboring countries, primarily Thailand. With various rebel groups controlling more than half of the country, the SAC junta is responding with indiscriminate aerial attacks and mass atrocities against civilians.
Since January 16 of this year, ASEAN foreign ministers have gathered on the Malaysian island of Langkawi – Malaysia is the current chair of the 10-member bloc. During the summit, Malaysia announced the appointment of former diplomat Othman Hashim as the special envoy for the crisis in Myanmar. It was stated that Hashim would visit the country to help enact the ASEAN ‘Five Point Peace Plan’, which had been established in April of 2021.
The plan calls for the immediate cessation of violence and the beginning of open communication toward a peaceful conclusion. ASEAN members would help cover humanitarian assistance, with an appointed ASEAN special envoy officiating dialogue between the different party leaders in Myanmar.
During an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera on January 4th, a representative of Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), which leads a coalition of troops collectively known as the People’s Defense Force (PDF), shared notable insights. The NUG was formed by politicians thrown out of office following the military coup and arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi. The interview was conducted with NUG’s Acting President, Duwa Lashi La. One of the questions asked by Al Jazeera was what the NUG thinks will happen in 2025. To this, Duwa Lashi La responded, “We aim to reach a tipping point in 2025, a situation similar to Syria when al-Assad fled the country. We have to strike a final blow against the SAC.”
Last year, the question was if General Hlaing’s government was on the verge of collapse. This year, the debate has shifted to whether General Hlaing will decide to face international pressure and carry out national elections, or whether he will continue to face civil instability within the country.
Featured image: A pro-democracy protester is arrested by Myanmar’s riot police during a rally against the country’s coup in Yangon, Myanmar, courtesy of Reuters 2021.
