Featured Image Courtesy of Foreign Policy
The German ‘traffic light’ coalition – composed of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) – that had been leading the country since 2021, collapsed on November 6, 2024. The disintegration came after Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed the Finance Minister and leader of the FDP, Christian Lindner. The decision marked the culmination of months of disagreements regarding the German economy, which has been in a recession with shrinking economic growth (Ziener, 2024). Following Lindner’s ousting, the FDP decided to withdraw their remaining ministers, leaving Scholz with a minority government, ultimately condemning the survival of the current German government.
The 2025 budget is considered the main source of contention within the coalition. The Greens and SPD expressed their desire to boost spending by taking on more debt (Connolly, 2024). Scholz argued that it would allow for infrastructure to be modernised and for an effective transition to environmental energy which would help support the German industry. Furthermore, the increase in social spending would also provide adequate support for Ukraine, which will face diminishing aid under President Donald Trump’s second term, starting in January. The FDP, nevertheless, opposed the additional borrowing, instead advocating for lower taxes, cuts in social spending, and the push back of environmental targets (Wertheheimer, 2024). The economic divisions then led to the failure to agree on a unanimous budget plan for 2025.
Although the economic problems contributed to the conclusion of the coalition, Scholz’s government faced multiple crises that undermined his leadership. The SPD never wavered in their conviction towards the expansion of the welfare state whilst the Greens strongly promoted their climate change policy. These initiatives were met with resistance by the FDP, and tensions only escalated following the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War in February 2022. It is estimated by the Straits Times that public support for Scholz’s government had been decreasing steadily for over a year, with national approval ratings hovering at just 10% (2024). It can therefore be argued that the end of the coalition might have been preferable rather than waiting for the German general elections which were scheduled for autumn of 2025.
It should be noted that many believe a reorganisation of the German government is indeed necessary. Germany’s economic stagnation has undermined its fundamental role as the European Union’s economic leader (Ziedner, 2024). Moreover, the coalition’s inability to effectively respond to the unprecedented geopolitical challenges led to support for far-right parties to emerge, such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is polling at an estimated 18%. Political analysts have emphasised the importance of Germany presenting a strong, united government especially as France, the other key player in the EU, has been struggling with destabilising domestic tensions. Therefore, a united German government is not only welcome, but also necessary in Europe’s present-day political landscape.
Given all of this uncertainty, Chancellor Scholz has called for a vote of no confidence on January 15, 2024. Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the conservative opposition, rejected this proposal by claiming that it would not be soon enough, with elections needing to be held immediately to enable Germany to have a functioning government (2024). Other German parties have also called for snap elections, which could occur as early as February. With Scholz’s government now being a minority, they are expected to lose the upcoming general elections. Merz, who is considered the frontrunner in the race, would thus assume the chancellery, with the CDU polling at around 30% nationally. The new government led by the FDP will most likely be composed of a two-party coalition, establishing economic and political policies with more ease.
Therefore, although the disintegration of the traffic coalition might have come as a shock, it could yield positive outcomes for Germany and international relations. Merz, similarly to Scholz, is an advocate for greater defence spending, firmly believing NATO should receive higher contributions. This strategy will be especially necessary as Trump’s upcoming presidency will likely increase the burden on Germany, which will require a united government to assume the additional responsibility. Furthermore, a more popular government can also contain the worrying rise of opposition in Germany. Ralph Brinkhaus, a former parliamentary group leader of the CDU, agrees with the claim, asserting that the new German federal government must be successful to ensure that the political field is not dominated by populists and extremists (2024).
