This article is written in conjunction with the IE Law Society.By Paulette Freixas Rey
In a race that played out much differently than many expected, the 2024 presidential election was called the day after Election Day, declaring Donald J. Trump the 47th president of the United States. The results left Trump supporters and non-supporters alike, along with the rest of the U.S. and global population, wondering: What’s next for the United States and the world? The IE Law Society and Economics Society joined to address this, with an event panel of professors Rolando Seijas Bolinaga, Oscar Martinez Tapia, and Antonios Kouroutakis.
The first question posed in the discussion was if they expected this outcome. Although the three professors had differing predictions of who the next president would be, they concurred that they believed it would be a much tighter race. Although the idea of Kamala Harris losing was possible, they didn’t think she would lose by as much as she did. Before Election Day, polls showed that the race between Trump and Harris was too close to call. Trump was the first Republican in two decades, since George W. Bush in 2004, to win the popular vote, but fell short of the majority vote with his vote at 49.9%. NPR reports that “this year’s popular vote margin is the second-closest since 1968”.
They discussed factors contributing to this outcome, with Professor Kouroutakis noting that Harris didn’t differentiate herself enough from Joe Biden. Professor Martinez Tapia said that through actions such as Trump’s nomination of conservative judges that led to the successful overturning of Roe v. Wade, just to name an example, Trump’s voters feel like he delivers on what he says he is going to do. This is contrasted by Americans’ growing distrust of Democrats and their seemingly empty promises, a belief reflected by Congressman Bernie Sanders’ post-election statement in which he expressed that America’s working class has been “abandoned” by the Democratic Party. Professor Seijas remarked that many people voted the way they did because they felt hurt as the government had been unresponsive to their biggest crises, such as inflation, and turned to Trump as the alternative. Be that as it may, Seijas believes that Trump’s popular opinion will change negatively by the midterm elections. This is because the policies Trump ran in this election, such as tariffs for example, will most likely end up having a lot of negative consequences on these Americans, such as in the form of higher grocery prices, car prices, gas prices, and interest rates. Another factor that could hurt Trump’s popular opinion is his cabinet nominations, which Martinez called “borderline comedy”. Trump has come under heavy criticism for his nominations, some of which included men facing sexual misconduct allegations and others widely considered to be generally underqualified and unfit for the roles.
Next, the panel discussed the next presidency’s impact on the rest of the world and the U.S.’s global image. Seijas said that a Trump presidency should be a wake-up call to Europe, explaining that it would be “foolish” to continue basing their policies and economic model of exportation on the U.S. He said that it is time to take these issues, including defense and economic growth, thoughtfully, and that reliance on the U.S. as has been routine in the past would be a grave mistake. Martinez responded by expressing doubt that Europe has what it takes in terms of leadership, and he sees Europe in a “deserved situation of inferiority.” However, Europe has the opportunity to begin differentiating itself from the United States. With the U.S. refusing to honor the ICC arrest warrant on Netanyahu and his former minister of defense minster Gallant, along with Hamas commander, a European stance of honoring the warrant could be a good first step in this individualization, as some European countries have already done. On another note regarding the election’s international impact, Kouroutakis fears a wave of identity politics in Europe with the rise of the far-right, as seen with Vox in Spain, Alternative for Germany, and Marie Le Pen in France.
While the election’s outcome highlights deep divisions within the American electorate, it also underscores broader questions about the nation’s direction domestically and on the world stage. As Professors Seijas Bolinaga, Martinez Tapia, and Kouroutakis discussed, this presidency’s economic, political, and international consequences remain uncertain. Still, they could redefine economic policies and the U.S.’s role in addressing critical challenges on the world stage. As the world watches, the next four years will serve as a critical test of resilience and adaptation for the U.S. and its global partners.
Featured image courtesy of Arunas Kacinskas on Dribble
